A 10-year business jet market outlook released today by pre-owned aircraft broker Jetcraft reflects a marked recalibration of growth expectations once inflated by what has proved to be the industry’s unfounded belief that emerging markets would trigger a golden age of growth. According to Jetcraft’s analysts, 8,755 new aircraft worth $271.1 billion will be delivered between 2015 and 2024.
Annual delivery totals are set to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5 percent to a peak of 1,127 in 2021 from 735 aircraft this year. It then predicts a moderate downturn between 2022 and 2024.
In terms of units and revenue, ultra-long-range jets are expected to command the lion’s share, while super-light jets are seen as the least significant in deliveries and very light lets generating the least in revenues. The highest CAGR gain over the forecast period is set to be among midsize jets, with large aircraft expected to achieve the lowest growth.
Over the 10-year period, the forecast sees 54 percent of the new deliveries going to North America (4,728 aircraft); Europe, 14 percent (1,225); Asia-Pacific, 12 percent (1,050); Russia and the CIS, 5 percent (438); and Middle East and Africa, each with 3 percent (263).